Are We In an Upturn?
According to the nice people at Chart of the Day, compared to the 28 stock market rallies over the last 111 years (about one every four years), the current rally is well below average in duration and magnitude. Given other good news lately, with unemployment down, new jobs up, economic resolution in Europe, continued low interest rates and minimal inflation, we may be in for a good year! Here’s the full explanation (about the market rally) from Chart of the Day:
The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally high Thursday as it approached the 13,000 level. To provide some perspective to the current Dow rally that began back in early October 2011, all major market rallies of the last 111 years are plotted on today’s chart. Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow. As today’s chart illustrates, the Dow has begun a major rally 28 times over the past 111 years which equates to an average of one rally every four years. Also, most major rallies (78%) resulted in a gain of between 30% and 150% (29.8% to 150.5% to be exact) and lasted between 200 and 800 trading days (9.5 months to 3.2 years) — highlighted in today’s chart with a light blue shaded box. As it stands right now, the current Dow rally (hollow blue dot labeled you are here) would be classified as well below average in both duration and magnitude.